Are Stocks Overpriced?

The average S&P 500 PE Ratio is 25.87, 65% greater than its long-term average of 15.68. The Shiller PE ratio, or cyclically adjusted PE ratio, sits at 32.65, 100% above its long-term average of 16.8, and the 14 day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is 72. By these metrics, it’s not a great time to be […]

Portfolio Update 10/6/17

It’s been a year since my last portfolio update. I took a break because I was working for a RIA and didn’t want to do anything FINRA would frown upon. I’ll get back in the habit now that I have resigned. I’ve had a great year in the markets, after returning 12.5% in 2016, I’m […]

What the Presidential Candidates Overlooked

Probably the most discounted and distorted issue in the 2016 US presidential election was the displacement of American jobs by automation and machine learning. The President-elect blames these disruptions on bunk trade pacts, immigrants and overregulation. I believe this is dangerous and needs to be talked about fairly. In 2013, Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael […]

Portfolio update 10/21/16

I’ve had an exciting month. I had two positions rise ~20% on the same day, Twitter (TWTR) and Bats Global Markets (BATS). I’ve also had two significant positions, American Express (AXP) and PayPal Holdings (PYPL) rise ~10% last week week. Those big moves were partly offset by underperformance in my two largest positions Gilead Sciences (GILD) and Under […]

SolarCity Shares are Undervalued

Elon Musk’s decision to bid for SolarCity in an all-stock deal wasn’t because of impending financial doom at SolarCity, though that may have contributed. Incorporating solar was part of Elon Musks original master plan written 10 years ago. The timing is bad from a financial standpoint, but each time Tesla sells new shares buyers show […]