2019 Performance & 2020s Outlook

I want to close out the decade with a brief update on Shaperfunds 2019 performance and predictions for the next decade. 

In 2019 Shaperfunds generated a total return of 44.15% versus 33.07% for the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index (div incl.) and 26.14% for the Total World Stock Index. 

My prediction for this next decade is that real assets and emerging markets that depend on exporting real assets will trounce US stocks. 

I believe valuations are stretched in the US. The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index currently trades at 25.2 times earnings. The dollar is strong and inflation is low. No one knows when things will change, but if history has taught me anything: Things change. 

By contrast Emerging Markets trade at 13.2 times earnings. The populations are larger, growing faster, and with larger increases in productivity and mortality. Valuations are about half… 

My portfolio is 58% Foreign Stocks and 29% US Stocks.

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